What Secular trend is
Secular trend is a long-term movement or shift in a particular direction in economic, social, or demographic indicators. It is a broad, non-cyclical trend that changes slowly over time. Secular trends are usually studied over periods of 10 years or more.
Steps for Secular Trend:
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Identify the trend: The first step in understanding a secular trend is to identify the particular trend. This may involve identifying the particular economic, social, or demographic indicator that is being measured.
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Analyze the data: Once the trend has been identified, the next step is to analyze the data to determine the direction of the trend. This might involve looking at long-term patterns in the data, or comparing the data to other relevant factors.
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Understand the factors influencing the trend: The third step is to try to understand the factors that may be influencing the trend. This may involve looking at economic, political, or social factors that may be affecting the trend.
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Make predictions: The fourth step is to make predictions about the future of the trend. This may involve making an educated guess about the direction of the trend in the future, or making a more detailed prediction based on the data and analysis of the trend.
Examples
- The growth in the average life expectancy of a population over the years.
- The increase in the average number of years of schooling of a population over the years.
- The decline in the number of people who smoke cigarettes over the years.
- The increase in the average height of a population over the years.
- The decline in the rate of childbirths among teenage girls over the years.
- The increase in the use of mobile phones over the years.
- The decline in the average number of hours worked per week over the years.
- The increase in the number of people who prefer organic food over the years.
- The decline in the rate of unemployment over the years.
- The increase in the use of social media over the years.