What Poisson is
Poisson is a probability distribution technique used to model the number of times an event occurs in a fixed period of time. It is most commonly used in cases where a fixed average rate of occurrence is observed and the events are independent from one another.
Steps for Poisson:
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Identify the time frame in which the event will be observed.
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Calculate the average rate of occurrence of the event in the given time frame.
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Calculate the probability of the event occurring a certain number of times in the given time frame.
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Generate a probability distribution table for the number of times the event could occur in the given time frame, using the average rate of occurrence as the parameter for the Poisson distribution.
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Use the Poisson distribution table to determine the probability of a certain number of occurrences of the event within the given time frame.
Examples
- Estimating the average number of car accidents over a certain time period.
- Modeling the number of times a customer visits a store per month.
- Predicting the amount of time it takes to perform a specific task.
- Estimating the number of trees in a forest.
- Modeling the number of customers that arrive at a restaurant in an hour.
- Predicting the number of phone calls a call center receives in a day.